ALL-WAYS NEWSLETTER

Well, it has taken a bit longer than we expected, but the User’s Corner of our Web site is up and running. Now you can download All-Ways Handicapping Profiles that have been submitted by other All-Ways software’s handicappers. This includes a special set of Churchill Downs Handicapping Profiles that have been specifically aimed at this year’s Breeder’s Cup. See the related article on page four of this newsletter.

The 1998 edition of The Breeder’s Cup will take place on November 7th at Churchill Downs. The whole world of horse racing looks forward to this truly terrific day of racing. On this day the best horses in the world, trained by the best trainers in the world, and ridden by the best jockeys in the world race in seven different races for a total of $12 million in purse money. It just doesn’t get any better than this.

The Breeder’s Cup is made up of seven races, plus a good undercard, that can be handicapped quite successfully and that provide some of the best wagering opportunities in all of racing. All-Ways software handicappers have been rewarded handsomely for the three Breeder’s Cups that have been run since All-Ways software was first introduced in 1995. Last year, All-Ways software spotted Elmhurst as a huge overlay in the BC Sprint. Elmhurst won, paying $35. The year before, All-Ways software had Alphabet Soup to beat Cigar in the BC Classic for a whopping payoff of $42. The year before that, All-Ways software spotted Tikkanen to beat Paradise Creek in the BC Turf. Tikkanen paid $34 to win. All these major scores anchored very large doubles and/or Pick 3’s payoffs.

A substantial part of this ALL-Way’s Newsletter is devoted to the 1998 running of the Breeder’s Cup. We will first look at an overview of this years Breeder’s Cup and an analysis of Churchill Downs. Then we will look at each of the seven individual Breeder’s Cup races.

The first three races of the day are the “undercard” races, meaning they are not part of the Breeder’s Cup. However, they are all stakes races and they are included in the day’s great wagering opportunities. Race #1 is the $100,000 Abrogate ungraded stakes at 6 furlongs for 3 year and up fillies and mares. Race #2 is the $100,000 Iriquois Grade III stakes at one mile for two year olds. Race #3 is the $150,000 Cardinal Grade III stakes at 1 1/8 mile on the turf for 3 year and up fillies and mares.

The seven Breeder’s Cup races are races #4 through #10 on the race card. The order of the Breeder’s Cup races has been changed for 1998. Specifically, the two juvenile races have been moved up to be the first two races run (races #4 and #5 on the day’s card). Also, the purse of the BC Distaff has been increased from $1 million to $2 million. The seven Breeder’s Cup races are as follows:

Another major change in 1998 that is very good news for handicappers is that the maximum betting interests have been increased from 12 last year to 14 this year.

Win, place and show wagering as well as Exacta and Trifecta wagers are available in all races on the card. Superfectas are available in the BC Sprint, the BC Mile, the BC Turf and the BC Classic. Doubles are available for races #1 and #2, races #4 and #5 and races #9 and #10. The very popular rolling Pick 3 format begins with race #2. This means there are seven Pick 3’s on the card. Finally, the Pick 6 starts with race #5. In 1997, the Pick 6 pool totaled almost $3 1/2 million.

Here are a few statistics from past Breeder’s Cup races. Favorites have won 40 out of 98 races, about 41%. That is 8 or 9 points higher than normal. However, the Breeder’s Cup is a wonderful set of races for a decent handicapper to make solid profits. Look at these average mutual payoffs for all Breeder’s Cup races run to date.

Average win payoff	$19.64
Average Exacta payoff	$175.00
Average Trifecta payoff	$1,552.00

Here are the top four trainers in terms of purse money won for the previous 14 Breeder’s Cups.

Lucas $12,656,000	(112 starters)
McGaughey $6,479,000	(39 starters)
Mott $6,430,000	(23 starters)
Fabre $5,384,000	(26 starters)

Please pay particular attention to Andre Fabre from Europe. His horses should always be given serious consideration.

What we are going to do now is examine Churchill Downs to see how the track might influence the races run on Breeder’s Cup day. We are going to look at two things:

First, we will look at long term track bias statistics. Be sure to print out the All-Ways Track Bias report. It will show you the track bias for Churchill Downs for the days leading up to the Breeder’s Cup.

Second, using the All-Ways Analysis Module, we ran an Impact Value Analysis of the 71 handicapping factors in All-Ways software to see which factors have the highest Impact Values (IVs). Remember, an IV of 1.0 means that horses ranked first in a race for this factor win just their fair share of races, no more and no less. An IV above 1.0 indicates horses ranked first in a race for this factor win more than their fair share of races. For example, an IV of 2.2 means that horses ranked first in a race for the factor win, on average, 2.2 times their fair share of races. An IV of 2.0 or higher is considered to be very strong.

The Impact Value Analysis also shows us how profitable each factor has been in terms of the return on each $2 bet. A return of $2.40 means that if we had bet $2.00 in every race on the horses ranked first for the factor, we would have won $2.40 for each $2.00 wagered. This is an average profit of 40 cents for an average return on investment of 20 percent.

Note that we restricted the Impact Value Analysis to the highest caliber races at the track. No Claiming or Maiden races were included. So, the analysis below applies to all 10 races on the Breeder’s Cup day race card.

Over the long term, Churchill Downs exhibits a slight early running style bias. Early (E) and Early Presser (EP) horses win dirt sprints about 65 percent of the time. However, as you will see later, the BC Sprint usually has a lot of early speed and often sets up for closers.

The following are the most powerful and profitable All-Ways software handicapping factors for higher caliber dirt sprint races at Churchill Downs:

Factor	IV	ROI

Back Class	2.97	$2.27
BRIS Class	3.21	$2.50
Hall Speed 2/3	2.72	$2.08
BRIS Back Speed	2.66	$2.29
BRIS Combined Pace 2/3	3.07	$2.06
Brohamer Average Pace	2.37	$2.12
Comprehensive	4.43	$3.90

Here are a few explanations. Back Class is the highest BRIS Class figure earned by the horse during the preceding 12 months for similar races. Back Speed is the highest BRIS Speed figure earned by the horse during the past 12 months for similar races. Combined Pace is the total of the horse’s Early Pace Rating plus the horse’s Final Fraction Pace Rating. The 2/3 means that the rating is the average of the horses best two of its last three races. The Brohamer Average Pace Ranking is for the horse ranked first of all horses in the race based on average feet-per-second velocity for the entire race. The Comprehensive Rating in All-Ways software is a composite rating based on the evaluation of 22 different handicapping factors covering suitability to the distance, suitability to the surface, current form, class level, speed ratings, jockey, trainer and pedigree.

A Comprehensive Rating Impact Value of 4.43 means that horses ranked first in the All-Ways Comprehensive Rating at Churchill Downs win an astounding 4.43 times their fair share of high caliber dirt sprint races. If you bet on the top rated Comprehensive Rating horse in every race, you would have received $3.90 back for every $2 bet. WOW! We also ran an All-Ways software Top 3 Analysis which showed that 71 percent of all winners in high caliber dirt sprints at Churchill Downs were ranked either 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the All-Ways Comprehensive Rating.

There is almost no long term bias at Churchill Downs for dirt routes. Only about 55 to 60 percent of dirt routes are won by Early (E) or Early Presser (EP) horses.

Here are the most powerful and most profitable All-Ways Handicapping Factors for high caliber dirt route races run at Churchill Downs.

Factor	IV	ROI

Back Class	3.34	$2.07
BRIS Class	3.88	$2.14
Avg. Competitive Level	3.78	$2.51
Hall Speed 2/3	2.63	$2.14
Hall Combined Pace 2/3	2.85	$2.41
Comprehensive	3.28	$2.00

Class is obviously key in high caliber dirt routes run at Churchill Downs. Also, the Top 3 Analysis shows that 67 percent of winners of high caliber dirt routes at Churchill Downs are won by horses ranked 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the All-Ways Comprehensive Rating.

Turf routes run at Churchill Downs have a long term bias slightly in favor of Presser (P) and Sustainer (S) horses. These are, of course, late running horses. Approximately 60 percent of races are won by “P” or “S” running style horses.

Here are the most powerful and profitable factors for high caliber turf route races run at Churchill Downs.

Factor	IV	ROI

Turf Class	2.52	$2.23
Hall Speed Last Race	2.68	$2.48
BRIS Final Fraction 2/3	2.56	$2.70
Hall Combined Pace 2/3	2.34	$2.30
Brohamer Total Ranking	2.75	$4.13
Comprehensive	2.62	$2.25

The Brohamer Total Ranking is the overall total ranking of the horse for its Early Pace, Average Pace and Sustained Pace feet-per-second Brohamer figures. This one is certainly no surprise to experienced All-Ways software handicappers. The Brohamer Total Ranking figure is dynamite for most turf races run at most tracks.

The Top 3 Analysis shows that a whopping 76 percent of high caliber Turf Route winners are ranked either 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the All-Ways Comprehensive Rating.

The Juvenile is a 1 1/16 mile race on the dirt for two year old colts and geldings.

This is one of the easier races to handicap at the Breeder’s Cup. There has been only one long shot ($20.40) winner in all of the past 14 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile races. Look for Stakes winners. Prefer horses that have demonstrated their ability to handle a tough race scenario such as a large field or a troubled trip. Prefer “E” and “EP” runners that have won a race designated by All-Ways software as having a FAST-FAST (FF) Quirin Race Shape race. If there is a lot of early speed in the race (at least three “E” runners) , watch out for horses with high Hall or BRIS Final Fraction Ratings.

The Juvenile Fillies is a 1 1/16 mile race on the dirt for two year old fillies.

This is another race that probably will not yield any surprises. There have been only two upset winners of this race in the 14 year history of the Breeders Cup and both of those happened at Hollywood Park. Indeed 10 of the other 12 winners were in the top 3 public choices.

Here is a key. Wire-to-wire is out. No horse has won this race in a wire-to-wire fashion. Look for stalkers (“EP”) or late runners (“P” & “S”) to win this race.

This race produces a lot of upsets. There is usually so much early speed in this race that closers (“P” and “S” horses) have a distinct advantage. This is contrary to how the public thinks and it is contrary to most track bias statistics for dirt sprints. Classic handicapping practices of form, class and speed are not as effective in this race because of the powerful influence of pace. All of this adds up to high priced upsets. If the field for the 1998 running of the Breeder’s Cup Sprint indicates a lot of early speed (an All-Ways Race Pace Shape of “EEE”), as it most likely will, look for horses with the best BRIS or Hall Final Fraction Ratings to do well. One more point: runners that have done well in 7 furlong sprints tend to not do so well in this 6 furlong race.

Northern Dancer is a powerful sire line for winners of this race. You may want to print out the All-Ways Suitability and Pedigree Report. Look for horses that were either 1st or 2nd in their last turf race. Class is very, very important, particularly the BRIS Turf Class Rating. Watch out for European horses in this race, particularly horses trained by Andre Fabre. European horses have won 6 of the 14 Breeder’s Cup Mile races.

This is a 1 1/8 mile dirt route race for three year old and upward fillies and mares.

Front runners (E) and Early Pressers (EP) horses do well in this race. Front runners have won three of the 14 BC Distaff races. Most other winners came from just off the pace (not deep closers). This race tends to draw short fields and the winner is relatively easy to spot. Do not expect a major surprise. This is often a good race to single a horse in the Pick 3 and the Pick 6.

Very often, the winner of this race is a significant surprise. Only five favorites have won the previous 14 BC Turf races. The average winning payoff for The Turf has been $26.72. Class is everything, particularly BRIS Turf Class. European horses often do well in The Turf. Again, pay particular attention to Andre Fabre horses. Look for horses that have been 1st or 2nd in Grade I or Grade II turf races of 1 3/16 or longer.

This is the big one. A $4 Million purse for the very best horses in the world. There are no discernible patterns or angles for this race. Yet this race yields its share of long shots like Alphabet Soup beating Cigar in 1996. Pay very close attention to the top All-Ways software picks in this race. All-Ways software has been around for three of the Breeder’s Cup Classic races and is 3 for 3 including Alphabet Soup.

Because of the high caliber of Breeder’s Cup races and the very large purses, many foreign horses, particularly European horses, are entered in Breeders Cup races. Most of these horses do not have speed ratings or ratings for other handicapping factors. But, there are some wonderful handicapping tools and angles available to you that are not known by the general public. Here are some useful guidelines when handicapping foreign horses.

Never ignore horses trained by Andre Fabre. He has won almost $5.4 million in purse money with only 26 starters. This places him fourth in the Breeders Cup trainer standings. However, his earnings per starter is more than $200,000. This is almost double that of D. Wayne Lucas, the leading trainer in terms of total purse winnings.

All-Ways software includes all the BRIS class ratings for foreign horses including Back Class, BRIS Class, True Class, Turf Class and Average Competitive Level (ACL). Most European horses are aimed at winning the BC Mile or BC Turf. Both of these races are turf races. History shows us that class is extremely important when handicapping turf races.

If you do nothing else, download the Timeform ratings from BRIS. These are ratings assigned to all Breeder’s Cup horses by a respected and very effective European rating service. All horses are rated, including American horses and horses shipping in from overseas. The Timeform ratings have pointed to some very important winners in the Breeder’s Cup races.

You can probably ignore foreign horses that have been racing on the turf and are now trying dirt for the first time. These horses just do not seem to win.

This is absolutely a great day of racing. Wonderful wagering opportunities are almost always available. However, if you do nothing else this day, be sure to savor the occasion. Relax and have a good time. Remember, whether you are an accomplished handicapper or a novice, this is as good as it gets. Enjoy!

Revised All-Ways Datafile includes Morning Line Odds and saddlecloth numbers.

When All-Ways software Version 7.0 was introduced this past June, it included a new feature that prints the Morning Line Odds and saddlecloth numbers on All-Ways software handicapping reports. For a while after Version 7.0 was introduced, it was necessary to download the Early Track Datafile (ETD) from BRIS in order to get this official program information into All-Ways software.

Now, when this official program information is available to BRIS, they add the information to the All-Ways Datafile (ALW). At that time, BRIS adds the letter "P" after the date designation for the file. For example, if you are going to download an All-Ways Datafile for Bay Meadows in October, BRIS will list the available Datafiles something like this:

This indicates that the All-Ways Datafiles for the 14th, 15th, 16th and 17th include the official program information and you will not need to download the Early Track Datafile. However, the All-Ways Datafile for the 18th does not yet include the official program information. This gives you a choice to make. You can either download the All-Ways Datafile now and the Early Track Datafile later or you can wait and just download the All-Ways Datafile later, after BRIS adds the official program information.

After handicapping a race card using All-Ways software and after the races have been run, it is important to download the race results information from BRIS and use the "Automatic Results Update" function in All-Ways software to add these results to your Race Database for the track. The results file you should download is the Flash Results file. You should know, however, that All-Ways software can also automatically enter results from the Exotic Results Datafile (XRD) which is also available from BRIS. If for some reason All-Ways software has a problem interpreting the relatively unstructured Flash Results file, you can simply download the XRD file. This very rarely is necessary, but it’s nice to know that All-Ways software provides this backup alternative.

The Frandsen Publishing web site is located at www.frandsen.com. There are four main sections of the site that have, among other things, past issues of our Newsletters, answers to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) and special subject papers. The fourth section is our new User’s Corner. We have been asking for All-Ways software handicappers to send us their Handicapping Profiles for tracks they handicap so that we can post them in our User’s Corner for downloading by other All-Ways software handicappers.

If you are handicapping a track for the first time and until you have built up a small Race Database for the track, you must use the ALL-Ways software default Handicapping Profiles. These profiles do a very good job of isolating contenders and they do very well indeed with high caliber races such as the Breeder’s Cup. However, Handicapping Profiles that are specific to the track are clearly superior.

If you are handicapping a track with All-Ways software for the first time, you will appreciate being able to come to our Web site to download the Handicapping Profiles for the track that were developed by another All-Ways software handicapper using his or her Race Database for the track.

Instructions for contributing Handicapping Profiles and for downloading them are included on our Web site.