FAQ # 9

FAQ # 9
ALL-Ways^{^{^TM}} Support

How can you tell if a horse can run to the Par Times of today’s race?

If you are not sure what is meant by Par Times, please scroll down to the Related FAQ.

Knowing which horse or horses can run to the Par Times of today’s race is very important. If only one horse can run to Par, then you may have a very solid single win candidate. If no horse can run to Par, then you have what we refer to as a Chaos Race (see ALL-Ways Newsletter #2, July 1996). Chaos races can lead to some great long shot winners.

Making this determination is very simple thanks to the Hall Pace and Speed figures. ALL-Ways calculates Par Times for each BRIS Race Rating. This BRIS Race Rating is shown at the top right of every ALL-Ways handicapping report. Let’s say the BRIS Race Rating for today’s race is a 114. This not only tells you the race class level of today’s race but, also, the Par Time designation for today’s race. So a 114 BRIS Race Rating also means that the Par Time designation for today’s race is also a 114.

This information is of no use by itself. You must be able to tell if any horse(s) can achieve this Par Time. Fortunately, the Hall Pace and Speed Rating are on exactly the same scale as the BRIS Race Rating. So, in our example, if the horse has a Hall Speed Rating of 114 or better, then it has demonstrated its ability to run to today’s Par Time. Actually, we would consider a horse as being able to run to the Par Times if its Hall Speed figure is within one point of today’s BRIS Race Rating. So a horse with a 113 Hall Speed figure can run to the Par Times of a race with a BRIS Race Rating of 114.

Note also that you can determine if a horse can run to the internal Pace Par Times by looking at the Hall Early Pace and Hall Final Fraction figures and comparing them to the BRIS Race Rating.

The most important figure by far in determining a horse’s ability to run to today’s Par Times is the horse’s Hall Speed Rating. You can use either the horse’s Hall Speed last race, or Hall Speed for its paceline race or Hall Speed 2 of 3, which is the average Hall Speed for the horse’s best 2 out of its last 3 races. Our recommendation is that you use the horse’s Hall Speed for its paceline race.

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