Return to the Main FAQ's PageFAQ # 7
ALL-WaysTM Support
What is meant by the term "Pace Match-up"?
There are many proponents of pace handicapping and they all have a slight twist on how they use pace to handicap a race. However, there is a universal theme to all pace handicapping methodologies. This truth is that the outcome of the race will be influenced most by the interaction of the running styles of the horses in the race and their respective early pace and final fraction pace figures. This interaction is what is referred to as the "pace match-up".
Here is our preferred approach to identifying how this interaction of running styles and pace figures will influence which horse wins the race. The first step is to divide the projected ESP Race Shapes into four different categories as shown below.
Category ESP Race Shapes
1 FAST EEE, EE
2 LONE EARLY E, EP, EP-P
3 HONEST E-EP, EP-EP
4 SLOW P, PP, PS, S
1 — FAST Pace Races
These races will be run very fast to the second call because there are multiple "E" horses all trying to get the lead. Very often these "E" horses burn each other out setting the race up for a winner from off the pace. The first thing to do is to determine if one of the "E" horses is a good horse and has a strong BRIS or Hall Early Pace figure advantage over the other "E" horse(s). If there is such a powerful "E" horse, then you can forget the other "E" horses as they will probably finish out-of-the-money. If the dominant "E" horse is one of the top horses of all the horses in the race, it may well go gate-to-wire. However, such a dominant "E" horse has been severely compromised by all the pressure from the other "E" horse(s) in the race and could easily be passed by a horse coming from off the pace. If the dominant "E" horse is passed early in the stretch, it will most likely finish out of the money.
If there is no dominant "E" horse in the race, the chances are high that all the "E" horses will finish off the board. These races are generally won by good "EP" and "P" horses and sometimes by a good "S" horse. The key is to look for a good horse with the best Final Fraction pace rating.
2 — LONE EARLY Pace Races
There may be no more dangerous horse than a good "E" or "EP" horse that figures to be loose on the lead. These horses are left alone to optimize the pace of the race for themselves. A good "E" or "EP" horse loose on the lead will, more often than not, win the race. Even apparently poor "E" and "EP" horses can "wake up" in this situation and unexpectedly wire the field at big mutuel payoffs. These apparently poor horses are a particularly good play if they have an ALL-Ways software workout rating of 1 or 2. As a "golden rule", never ignore an "E" or "EP" horse in Lone Early Pace races. Look for the best good "P" and "S" horses to finish in-the-money. Pay particular attention to those with the best Final Fraction Pace figures.
3 — HONEST Pace Races
Most races fall into this category. While a "P" or "S" horse can certainly win such a race, they generally need a faster pace to set the race up for their late stretch run. These races tend to favor "E" and "EP" horses. In an E-EP shaped race, if a good "EP" horse has a Speed or Combined Pace rating better than the "E" horse, it will generally pass the "E" horse in the stretch run. If the "EP" horse also has an Early Pace rating that is superior to the "E" horse, it will generally pass the "E" horse early in the stretch run causing the "E" horse to finish off-the-board. EP-EP shape races lend themselves nicely to traditional form, class and speed handicapping. Note that a prevailing track pace bias tends to have the most influence on EP-EP races.
4 — SLOW Pace Races
These races, as expected, tend to be run very slow to the second call because no horse in the field wants to be anywhere close to the lead. These races are generally won by good "P" or "S" horses with superior Combined Pace and/or Speed ratings. However, there is a solid spot play to look for that can yield large mutuel payoffs. While none of the horses wants the lead, one of them is going to get it and, more often than not, it is the "P" horse with the fastest Early Pace figure. Frequently, such a "P" horse is able to move into the lead by three to five lengths or more and hold on for a gate-to-wire win. An astute trainer will spot this opportunity and instruct the jockey to go right for the lead. You have probably heard the term "stole the race". This often is what happens with a "P" horse in a Slow Pace race or a lone "EP" or "E" horse in a Lone Early Pace race as described earlier.
We strongly suggest that you read the ALL-Ways Newsletter of October 1996. It expands on this simple but very powerful approach to pace handicapping.