FAQ # 45

FAQ # 45
ALL-Ways^{^{^TM}} Support

What are Par Times, Daily Track Variants and Track-to-Track Adjustments?

Par Times

In simple terms, Par final time is the average final time for a particular group of races. ALL-Ways groups races as follows: First, it separates races based on the five Age and Sex Restriction (ASR) categories of the races. Second, it separate each of these ASR categories into dirt and turf races. Third it separates each of these surface categories into specific distances ranging from 4 1/2 furlongs up to 1 1/2 miles. Finally, each of these distance categories is further separated into approximately 20 different BRIS Race Rating groups. Note that this is done individually for each track in North America. Also, tracks with inner tracks such as the inner dirt track at Aquaduct are calculated separately from the main track.

Here are a couple of examples. ALL-Ways calculates the Par Times for 3 year and up male and female races at Santa Anita that are on the turf at 1 1/16 miles with a BRIS Race Rating of 115. ALL-Ways calculates the Par Times for 3 year old only/female only races on the dirt at Aquaduct at 6 furlongs with a BRIS Race Rating of 112. And so on. In this manner, ALL-Ways calculates Par Times for every kind of race run at virtually every track in North America.

ALL-Ways actually calculates far more than just the Par final time figures. It also calculates pars for Early Pace times which is figured at the second call (4 furlongs in sprints and 6 furlongs in routes), for Final Fraction times which is from the second call to the finish and for Turn Time which is from the first call ( 2 furlong in sprints and 4 furlongs in routes) to the second call. ALL-ways also calculates a Par for Early Energy expended by the winning horses.

Daily Track Variants

Let’s say two horses ran identical final times in their last races at Santa Anita but they ran their last races on two different days. Let’s also say that one day the track was listed as "fast" and the other day the track was listed as "good" because it was still drying out from an overnight rain. The horse that ran its time on the "good" track probably ran a better race than the horse that achieved the same final time on the "fast" track.

If you look at all the races that were run on a particular day at a track and compare the final times of the races with their respective Par Times, you can arrive at a conclusion that the track was running a little slow compared to par or a little fast compared to par or right on par. This "little bit slow" and "little bit fast" is what is referred to as the daily track variant. ALL-Ways does this for every day’s races at virtually every track in North America. The calculations are done separately for dirt sprints, dirt routes and turf races. ALL-Ways uses very complex and powerful algorithms, include multiple day evaluations, to arrive at these Daily Track Variants.

Back to our example, let’s say the track was running 2/5 seconds slow for dirt sprints on the day the track was listed as "good". Let’s also say the track had a zero variant on the day the track was listed as "fast". Remember that the two horses had the same final time. This would indicate that the horse that ran on the "good" day was actually 2/5 second faster than the horse that ran on the "fast" day. In other words, the horse that ran on the "good" day had to overcome the 2/5 second slow Daily Track Variant.

Note that ALL-Ways also calculates the Daily Track Variants for the fractional times of the races such as the first call time and the final fraction time.

The track condition is not the only thing that can cause a track to have a daily track variant. A strong wind can have a significant effect depending on the speed and direction of the wind. How the track was prepared for the day can have a significant effect as well.

Track-to-Track Adjustments

This one is easy. The Track-to-Track adjustment is simply the difference in Par Times for two different tracks for comparable races. If the Par time for a particular group of races at Santa Anita is 3/5 seconds faster than the Par Time for comparable races at Aquaduct, then the Track-to-Track adjustment from Aquaduct to Santa Anita is 3/5 seconds. Again, ALL-Ways calculates these adjustment between virtually every track in North America and it does so for internal fractions as well as final time.

Putting It All Together

So, why go to all this bother? When handicapping a race, it is important to be able to compare all the horses for their final times and internal pace fractions on an "apples to apples" basis. So we will adjust each horse’s past performance times by the Daily Track Variant for the days the races were run and, if the races were run at a different track than today’s track, we will further adjust the horse’s times by the Track-to-Track adjustment. With this done, we can now accurately evaluate the past performances of one horse with those of every other horse.

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