Return to the Main FAQ's PageFAQ # 37
ALL-WaysTM Support
When should I include and when should I exclude pace handicapping factors in Multiple Regression Analysis generated Handicapping Profiles?
ALL-Ways gives you the ability to tell it if you want it to include or exclude pace factors when it uses a Multiple Regression Analysis function. You do this by going to the CUSTOM Module, then select PREFERENCES, then select include or exclude pace and then save the preferences.
If you want to preserve the strategy of the Multiple Regression Analysis Default function (MRA DEF), then you will want to exclude the pace factors. Here is why. This function creates 5 groups of Handicapping Profiles. There is a group for non maiden dirt sprints, a group for non maiden dirt routes, a group for all turf races, a group for maiden dirt sprints and a group for maiden dirt routes. Each group has three profiles. These 3 profiles use what we call the "opposing pace" profile strategy. The first profile has no pace bias. The second profile is identical to the first but favors early runners. The third profile favors late runners. If you were to turn on the pace factors, the first profile could take on a pace bias and the second and third profiles could have their pace biases compromised. For example, the late biased profile could end up with early pace factors that negate the forced late pace factors.
The Professional Edition of ALL-Ways allows you to use three different Handicapping Profiles to handicap a race. So, all three profiles that make up a group in the MRA Default profiles can be used together. ALL-Ways handicaps the race three times in literally a second or two and integrates the results on the Contender Summary Report. This is a great way to use the MRA Default profiles and their "Opposing Pace" strategy. The net effect is that a very high percentage of place and show horses end up in the contender list as well as the win horses. So, we recommend never using pace factors for the MRA Default function in the Professional Edition.
How you use the MRA Default profiles in the Standard Edition requires some more discussion and thought. The Standard Edition requires that you select a single profile to handicap the race. Of course you could also handicap the race three separate times. Another approach would be to select the non biased profile for Honest Pace races and Slow Pace races, the early biased profile for Lone Early Pace races and the late biased profile for Fast Early Pace races. (Note: You can view and/or print the ALL-Ways Newsletter from October 1996 in the Newsletter section of our web site. This newsletter explains the concept of Race Pace Shapes.). Still another approach would be to turn on pace factors when running the MRA Default function so that the non biased profile acquires a pace bias based on the Multiple Regression Analysis it does for each of the five groups of races. If you do this, you must ignore the early and late biased profiles in each group because they may have been compromised. You should not use them. Use only the first profile in each group.
The Professional Edition includes the Multiple Regression Analysis Custom function. This allows the user to set the race screens and then, using the MRA Custom function, automatically creates the profiles for the types of races analyzed. Generally, you will want to turn on the pace factors if you segment the races based on some kind of pace consideration such as Race Pace Shapes referenced earlier. You may also want to turn pace factors on if you are creating profiles aimed at finding long shots. Pace often plays a role when long odds horses come in. If you are not segmenting the races based on pace considerations, then we strongly advise that you turn the pace factors off before using the MRA Custom function. The reason for this recommendation is subtle but very important. Even if you have not segmented the races based on pace considerations, pace match-ups will still have more influence on the outcome of the races than any other consideration. If you use a MRA Custom Handicapping Profile that has a pace bias because pace factors were turned on, but you apply the profile to races indiscriminately without regard to pace, the pace bias in the profile may not be suitable to the specific pace match-up in the race. Pfew! This may be a tough point to grasp. But, it is important. Please re-read this paragraph several times if necessary.
Now, there is one more important point to make. One of the powerful features in ALL-Ways is the capability to create Handicapping Profiles and then test them by running a Database Run Analysis. So, if in doubt about using pace factors, try it both ways and test how well each way works. Then go with the method that consistently gives the best results.