Return to the Main FAQ's PageFAQ # 24
ALL-WaysTM Support
Which horse should be the Key Horse in a Trifecta?
For a thorough discussion on betting the Trifecta, see the two part series in our April and July issues of the ALL-Ways Newsletter. You can view/print them in the Newsletter section of our Web site.
When you have four or more horses that are part of a Trifecta wager, it is almost always best to Key a horse. We say this for two reasons. First, it lowers the price of the ticket. Second, it requires that you analyze and understand the race. If you cannot identify a Key Horse, chances are you should pass the race. Here are some examples of how the amount of the bet can be lowered.
A $2 four horse Trifecta box costs $48 (ABCD/ABCD/ABCD)
Key a horse in the win, place and show positions and the bet is only $36. The bet looks like this where "D" is the Key Horse:
ABC/ABC/D
ABC/D/ABC
D/ABC/ABC
Better yet, the total cost of the combinations below is only $24. This means instead of paying $48 for a $2 Trifecta, you can spend the same $48 and get a $4 Trifecta.
AB/ABC/D
AB/D/ABD
D/AB/ABD
Here is a method to use to determine if you should play the Trifecta for any particular race. Note, when we refer to a "long odds" horse, we are referring to horses that are going off at 10 to 1 or higher, the higher the better, of course. Divide the potential Trifecta opportunity into one of four scenarios.
1 The favorite figures to run in-the-money and no long odds horse figures to run in-the-money. Unfortunately, these account for the majority of Trifectas and you should almost always pass the wager. You are virtually assured of an under valued payoff.
2 The favorite figures to finish in-the-money and a long odds horse figures to finish in-the-money. This will generally be a playable Trifecta.
3 The favorite figures to finish out-of-the-money and no long odds horse figures to finish in-the-money. This Trifecta, with a false favorite, will almost always be playable.
4 The favorite figures to finish out-of-the-money and a long odds horse figures to finish in-the-money. This is the time to open your wallet and crush the Trifecta.
Here is a table that summarizes all of this.
Favorite |
Long Odds |
Play or |
||||||
| yes | no | pass | ||||||
| yes | yes | play | ||||||
| no | no | play | ||||||
| no | yes | crush |
Now, to the central question, "How do we select the Key Horse".
First, the Key Horse should never be the betting favorite. The reason is simple. In order to win the Trifecta, our Key Horse must finish in-the-money. However, we hope the betting favorite finishes out-of-the-money. Hence, the Key Horse must not be the betting favorite.
Second, while not as firm a rule as not using the betting favorite as the Key Horse, it is almost always best not to use the long odds horse as the Key Horse. Usually, the long odds horse is a long odds horse for a reason; namely that there is a strong possibility the horse won’t finish in-the-money. If the horse does finish out-of-the-money, and we have not used it as the Key Horse, we still have a chance to win the bet.
So, the Key Horse should be one of the other two horses in a four horse Trifecta bet or one of the other three horses in a five horse Trifecta bet. Obviously, it will be the one of these other horses that you feel has the best chance of finishing in-the-money. You do not need to be confident it will win. Just be confident it will hit the board.