FAQ # 2
ALL-Ways^TM Support

Segment the races by race type.

The single most important thing you can do right now to improve your selections and your profitability is to aim your Handicapping Profiles directly at specific types of races run at the tracks you handicap. Sprints are fundamentally different than routes. Dirt races are fundamentally different than turf races. Maiden races are fundamentally different than non-maiden races. These are the three areas that represent the minimum level of race segmentation.

To illustrate the point, let’s look at the results of some Impact Value Analyses for the eight factors making up the form group of ALL-Ways software’s handicapping factors. We ran the IV Analysis individually for dirt sprints at four different tracks, first for maiden and non- maiden races combined and then individually. The table below shows the top handicapping factor in the form group based on the highest Impact Value.

Non-Maiden and Maiden Together

Maidens Only

Non-Maidens Only

Notice how the IV Analysis for maidens identified Hambleton Form Points and the Workout Index as the most powerful form factors for maiden dirt sprints, yet they did not even show up in the IV Analysis for maidens and non- maidens combined.

We used the MRA Custom Function to automatically create Handicapping Profiles for dirt sprints, with one combining maidens and non-maidens and then separate profiles for maiden and non- maidens. Look at the dramatic ROI improvement when maiden and non- maiden races are separated.

Non-Maiden and Maiden Together

Maidens Only

Non-Maidens Only

The Default Handicapping Profiles, both those originally supplied with ALL-Ways software and those automatically generated by the MRA Default function, use this minimum level of race segmentation. In both cases, there are five groups of three profiles. There is a group for non-maiden dirt sprints, non-maiden dirt routes, all turf races, maiden dirt sprints and maiden dirt routes.

Lets stop a minute. You now know that both the original and the MRA default profiles segment the races into five types of races, which we consider to be the minimum segmentation to be successful. You also know that you should run the MRA Default function as soon as possible so that the default profiles are tuned to the specific track. You could stop right here and do exceedingly well with ALL-Ways software by simply making sound wagers and practicing good money management.

But, we do not want to leave the subject of race segmentation just yet. We are getting great reports from a number of ALL-Ways software users regarding one particular race segmentation strategy. We have tried it, also with impressive results.

We will call this The Race Shape Segmentation Strategy. In our October, 1996 newsletter, we showed you how to put the eleven possible ESP Race Shapes that ALL-Ways software designates for a race into four different categories. Here is the chart that we showed you.

The Race Shape Segmentation Strategy calls for you to create a set of Handicapping Profiles for non-maiden races for each of the four categories and another set for maidens. Here is a list of the Handicapping Profiles you may end up with:

fast dirt sprint non-maiden (fast ds nm)
fast dirt route non-maiden (fast dr nm)
fast turf non-maiden (fast turf nm)

lone early dirt sprint non-maiden(lone ds nm)
lone early dirt route non-maiden (lone dr nm)
lone early turf non-maiden (lone turf nm)

honest dirt sprint non-maiden (hon ds nm)
honest dirt route non-maiden (hon dr nm)
honest turf non-maiden (hon turf nm)

slow dirt sprint non-maiden (slow ds nm)
slow dirt route non-maiden (slow dr nm)
slow turf non-maiden (slow turf nm)

You will also have a set for maiden races. In reality, you will not have all these Handicapping Profiles until your Race Database for a track is quite large. For example, you will find that there are not many non-maiden SLOW category races. Almost all SLOW races are maiden races. Note also that, at some point, you may have enough races for off tracks and for turf sprints.

Creating these Handicapping Profiles is very easy. As an example, consider creating the FAST NON-MAIDEN profiles. Step one is to click the CREATE button in the Analysis Module. This gets you to the race screens. Simply turn on all Race Types except maidens and turn on only the "EEE" and "EE" ESP Race Shapes. Then create the dirt sprint, dirt route and turf profiles as you normally do by running the IV Analysis, saving the calculated Impact Values, selecting the best handicapping factors and then going to the Profile Module to actually create the profiles. If you are unsure how to do this, please read the two chapters in the ALL-Ways Software User Manual covering the Analysis Module and the Profile Module. Professional Edition users may choose to use the Multiple Regression Analysis Custom function to automatically create the profiles. If so, you should turn the pace factors on before running the MRA Custom function.

If you have not yet advanced to the point of creating your own Handicapping Profiles in ALL-Ways software, you really should make it a point to do so. This is how you can really unleash the power of ALL-Ways software. It is very easy to do and you will be rewarded well for doing so. Plus, it is a lot of fun. How many other things can you think of that are both fun and profitable.

Additional Race Segmentation

There are nine different race screens in the ALL-Ways Analysis Module that can be used in any combination to screen-in/screen-out any set of races. You can use these race screens to segment races so your Handicapping Profiles can be aimed at an almost infinite array of race groups. Here are the nine race screens:

Track Surface

Track Condition

Race Distances

Race Types

Race ESP Shapes

Race Age and Sex Restrictions

Race Class Ratings

Winner’s Mutuel Win Payoff

Race Dates

You need not worry about surface or condition because ALL-Ways software automatically segments these races. Let’s look at the other possibilities.

Distance

ALL-Ways software automatically segments sprints and routes. This race screen allows you to go even further to isolate specific distances or groups of distances. For example, you may want to analyze and to set up specific Handicapping Profiles for short sprints at 5 1/2 furlongs and under, middle range sprints of 6 and 6 1/2 furlongs and long sprints of 7 and 7 1/2 furlongs. Short sprints are indeed run differently. They tend to be all out dashes to the wire. Middle sprints often require tactical speed and long sprints usually do.

Race Types

As we said in our previous newsletter, you should always use this race screen to separate maiden and non-maiden races. You can also use these race screens to isolate graded stakes races, non-graded stakes races, allowance races and claiming races. A number of ALL-Ways software users have reported good results by isolating allowance races separately from claiming races.

Race Class Rating

This race screen lets you set a specific range of BRIS Race Ratings. This is a way, for example, that you can isolate very high class races (which generally have Race Ratings above 117) from middle class races (which generally have Race Ratings between 108 and 117) from lower class races (which generally have Race Ratings under 108). Many handicapping books tell you that all $10,000 claiming races are at the same class level at all tracks in the North America. This is simply not the case. Even $10,000 claiming races at the same track can have a 3 or 4 point difference in class level. Indeed, this explains the incredible power of the BRIS Race Rating figures. They show you the real class within a class. And All-Ways software lets you segment races based on these powerful ratings.

ESP Race Shapes

Please read our October, 1996 and our April, 1997 newsletters for a thorough explanation of how to segment races using these ESP Race Shapes. If you do not have these newsletters, contact Frandsen Publishing and we will be glad to send them to you at no charge.

ASR (Age and Sex Restrictions)

There are five ASR categories: 1) 3 years and up males and females; 2) 3 years and up females only; 3) two year olds; 4) 3 year olds only males and females; 5) 3 year olds only females only. Once your Race Database has enough races, you should create a profile aimed at 2 year olds in dirt sprints. These youngsters rarely do anything other than run as fast as they can for as far as they can. Another race segmentation you may want to try is for 3 year olds. These horses mature rapidly and constantly during their sophomore (3 year old) season. A segmentation strategy that has been reported to be effective is to have a set of profiles for three year olds running during the first eight months of the year and a separate set for the last four months of the year. You will have to wait to use this idea until your second year of using ALL-Ways software.

Race Dates

We just gave you a way to use date cutoffs for handicapping 3 year olds. Another use of the Race Date Screens is to limit any analysis to the most recent races. Still another use is to have separate profiles for each meet at tracks that run more than one meet in a year. The Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita is one example. This race screen may be particularly important for tracks that make use of inner tracks during a separate meet such as the inner dirt track at Aqueduct.

Winners Win Payoff

This is an incredibly powerful race screen in ALL-ways software. The most obvious use of this race screen is to build profiles aimed at finding high payoff horses.

In summary, there is an almost infinite number of ways you can segment the races when creating Handicapping Profiles. This may well be the single most powerful feature in ALL-Ways software. And, ALL-Ways software gives you the ability to not only create the profiles but to measure their effectiveness as well by running a Database Run Analysis.

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